Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 83133.036421 87749.911110 92365.981379 97324.290311 102496.191539 107728.491172 113418.687933
2025-05-18 75328.999452 82377.220220 89622.191005 97615.875755 106177.976646 115063.506356 124971.439024
2025-05-25 69627.450107 78313.186307 87438.812492 97720.567283 108961.219984 120855.591907 134371.801335
2025-06-01 65920.881646 75901.622609 86579.731750 98819.460473 112425.679885 127051.121370 143924.541961
2025-06-08 62011.522220 72913.621149 84767.541225 98563.445112 114125.749370 131084.436442 150908.173805
2025-06-15 59776.954732 71593.877053 84625.637974 99994.465433 117551.777582 136910.772946 159795.310386
2025-06-22 57452.357580 70002.245745 84025.470225 100766.941753 120115.703677 141680.196651 167432.622098
2025-06-29 55011.505927 68131.192419 82974.715902 100900.583257 121844.655665 145421.722308 173844.536806
2025-07-06 52771.385139 66376.254025 81950.886583 100964.299523 123406.114993 148905.515734 179915.888087
2025-07-13 51692.805120 65930.355527 82402.031403 102705.511416 126887.325757 154590.804322 188542.102923
2025-07-20 50562.108664 65356.299965 82645.840022 104154.591151 129992.600311 159824.901652 196651.686010
2025-07-27 49146.749817 64369.302860 82337.046753 104891.803490 132213.779574 163998.842785 203512.966299
2025-08-03 47367.471544 62892.553301 81406.654469 104863.918317 133523.825463 167123.939656 209194.516517
2025-08-10 45828.462028 61660.069583 80728.083992 105103.777095 135131.437810 170595.590616 215303.489543
2025-08-17 44316.094043 60403.959105 79969.579879 105199.663565 136528.306820 173793.471490 221080.843438
2025-08-24 43412.920931 59883.481057 80093.711227 106362.814889 139219.006009 178554.616200 228766.256010
2025-08-31 41890.870044 58514.644947 79104.529169 106090.332939 140098.963211 181088.574808 233734.021867
2025-09-07 41276.398233 58296.250137 79550.172730 107609.028610 143203.200707 186354.366214 242071.343895
2025-09-14 40385.475244 57682.438160 79462.941140 108428.782240 145418.008453 190523.828586 249076.019117
2025-09-21 39244.892091 56700.781592 78868.766456 108570.594110 146755.277210 193595.087231 254725.581521
2025-09-28 38129.491681 55717.058203 78239.672695 108638.207025 147976.045115 196509.407494 260181.764088
2025-10-05 37813.581267 55795.067546 78987.394765 110485.767636 151475.144187 202294.017571 269260.057961
2025-10-12 37387.732297 55706.222667 79502.674282 112023.087457 154577.938738 207594.052742 277761.484782